UK and EU have both made Brexit blunders, says Article 50 author

Former UK diplomat Lord Kerr said he thought it was a mistake for the EU to insist on speaking about Brexit bill first.

LONDON — Britain and the European Union have both made tactical blunders in opening salvos of the Brexit negotiations in Brussels, said the former U.K. diplomat who authored the Article 50 clause of the EU treaties that Britain invoked this spring to leave the block.

John Kerr — now Lord Kerr of Kinlochard — said EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier had secured “impressive unanimity” from the EU27 only by overpromising on the Brexit bill. But he said it was disappointing that the U.K. was adopting a reactive strategy rather than setting out a vision for Britain’s future relationship with the bloc.

The former diplomat said Barnier should have agreed to simultaneous talks on the future relationship between Britain and the EU and the divorce bill — insisting that the text of Article 50 allowed for it.

“On [the EU27] side I think it was a mistake to say that you have to settle the money before we talk about the future relationship,” he said, adding that it would be easier for the U.K. government to justify a large bill politically if it is the cost of future access to the EU market.

“I think Barnier understands that, and therefore he is talking about ‘sufficient progress’ [toward a deal on the U.K.’s Brexit bill],” he said.

Equally though, the attitude of many in the U.K.’s ruling Conservative Party to the Brexit bill had not helped, he said. Telling Barnier “we don’t owe a bean, we are going to kick up the table and walk out, we will be fine,” meant the EU27 thought it was “necessary to screw us on the money from the word go,” he said. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson told the House of Commons last week that the EU could “go whistle” if it expected the U.K. to pay a substantial sum on leaving the EU.

Kerr said it was unlikely that the negotiators would reach agreement on a number by the European Council summit in October. “He has secured agreement from the 27 by saying ‘yep, that is a good idea, we will charge that for that, yep we will charge them for that as well,’ hence we get to these fantastic numbers like £100 billion. That is by everybody who had a bright idea. He has not said to them ‘actually that is unrealistic.'”

One difficulty for Barnier will be that the need to consult with the 27 EU countries makes it hard for him to be flexible. “It will be difficult for them to climb down. In the end there will be a number which is well below the numbers being talked about now I would guess. But it would be easier to sell that number here if it was linked to the future.”

Kerr’s thinking chimes with that of senior U.K negotiators. One person familiar with the U.K.’s position told POLITICO that British negotiators “worry how [the EU] is going to negotiate flexibly when they have to manage demands, including on the financial obligations, of 27 members states.”

Meanwhile, EU negotiators have expressed exasperation at what they perceive as the U.K.’s lack of preparation for aspects of the talks, with particular irritation that the British have made no counter-estimate of the “Brexit bill.”

In an interview with POLITICO, Kerr poured scorn on the British approach to talks, claiming Theresa May had failed to draft a proposal for the “institutional structure” that Britain wants with the EU after Brexit — something the prime minister has characterized as “deep and special.”

“When we are no longer in the council room, we ought to want to be, and I think she wants to be, in the room next door on a whole range of things — anti-terrorism, law and justice, foreign policy, defense, energy and the environment. But we haven’t said that,” said Kerr.

Referring to May’s speech laying out her vision of Brexit in January, he said, “[She] put it in the Lancaster House speech sort of, but we haven’t come forward with a proposal of this is how we think it should work. That was a mistake.”

He said Britain had failed to put forward a “serious document.”

“We are negotiating on their text and seem to be saying ‘explain line one, explain line two.’ That is a great pity. It would have been much better if we had taken the high ground with a blueprint for the future relationship and then the member states would have said ‘we do want to start discussing that.'”

U.K. negotiators take the view that on financial obligations, the onus is on the EU, as the party asking for money, to make a proposal, the person familiar with the British position said. On other issues such as citizens rights, the person said, the U.K. had embraced a “reciprocal” approach, with both sides making their proposals.

Kerr said he thought there would be a deal on EU citizens rights in the fall.

“It will be somewhere between their position and our position, but the gaps are not huge. I think it is perfectly doable.”

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