“Hundreds of American cities are already locked into watery futures and we are growing that group very rapidly.”

That’s the message from Dr. Ben Strauss, the lead author of a new analysis of climate change data that shows the amount of carbon pollution already in the atmosphere could lead to “more than 4 feet of sea level rise past today’s levels” which would be enough, at high tide, to “submerge more than half of today’s population in 316 coastal cities and towns (home to 3.6 million) in the lower 48 states.”

Strauss and his team released this interactive map to illustrate their findings:

According to the study the US cities most under threat from future coastal flooding are Miami, Virginia Beach, Va., Sacramento, Calif., and Jacksonville, Fla.

Those at a lessened but substantial risk include much larger cities like Boston, Long Beach, Calif., and New York City.

The analysis specifically looks at the level of “locked in” sea level rise. Writing at Climate Central, where he heads of the Program on Sea Level Rise, Strauss explains, “We have two sea levels: the sea level of today, and the far higher sea level that is already being locked in for some distant tomorrow.”

He continues:

As Suzanne Goldenberg, the environment correspondent for the Guardian, explains:

Though the study specifically avoids predicting the rate of melting and planetary warming, it says that the ultimate threat to these coastal communities is “irreversible”.

“In a loose analogy,” writes Strauss, “it is much easier to know that a pile of ice in a warm room will melt, than to know exactly how fast it will melt.”

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