As Joe Biden lands in Iowa for two days of events, he’s confronting signs of crumbling support in the first-in-the-nation caucus state: A new survey shows he’s plummeted 20 percentage points since September.
A Focus on Rural America poll released Wednesday suggests the ground has shifted significantly over the past several months, with Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Biden currently clustered together at the top: Warren had 20 percent, Harris at 18 percent and Biden 17 percent.
Bernie Sanders came in fourth at 12 percent.
In September, in the same poll, Biden was walloping the field; with 37 percent support, he led Sanders, his next closest competitor, by 25 points.
In the months since then, however, the former vice president has lagged behind other top-tier rivals in assembling an on-the-ground organization. Leading Iowa Democrats have complained Biden has failed to offer Iowans the kind of doting retail politics to which they’re accustomed.
Focus on Rural America Chair Patty Judge, also a former lieutenant governor in Iowa, said the results are the latest sign that Biden has to “step up his game” if he wants to compete in Iowa.
“He has not been campaigning in Iowa. He has not had a presence here,” Judge said. “Couple that with the debate — in which Kamala Harris certainly took a piece of his hide. I think it has caught up to him.”
The new survey showed Warren making the most marked gains, with a 12-percentage-point jump since March. It’s a sign the Massachusetts senator’s heavy investment in staffing and organization in the state might be paying off.
“[Warren] is definitely seeing some of the fruits of all of the hard work done by her campaign in Iowa. She’s doing well because she’s been here,” Judge said. “She is growing here in name ID and popularity, she’s camped out here a good deal of the time. She has an incredible field operation going.”
Harris, too, saw a sizable bump, gaining 9 percentage points since March. Biden, meanwhile, dropped 8 percentage points since the March survey, when he led with 25 percent. The latest poll was in the field the weekend after the first presidential debates, when Harris seized headlines after a lengthy takedown of Biden over race-related questions. The survey was conducted by David Binder Research, who also serves as Harris’ main pollster.
But Harris stood at just 7 percent in December and 9 percent in March in the same poll.
The new poll is the latest sign of trouble for the 76-year-old Biden, who is attempting to regain his footing after his roundly panned first debate performance raised questions about the durability of his candidacy.
The former vice president has been buffeted in the days after the debate with questions about his record on civil rights and his recent comments about his relationship with segregationist senators.
Biden has had one high-profile donor abandon him and has seen his standing decline in several national polls taken after the debate.
His campaign, however, has committed to plowing more resources into early state infrastructure, including in Iowa, where 50 new staffers are rushing to catch up to already established organizations of Warren and others who began laying the groundwork as early as January.
Biden, who in June promised Iowans he would be paying closer attention to the state, will appear with his wife, Jill, at a community event in Waterloo on Wednesday. He will march in the Fourth of July parade in Independence on Thursday and has two other events scheduled.
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